Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genk — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Genk, with 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The head-to-head data gives Union St. Gilloise an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Genk 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 43% | Genk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG and Genk 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.233 / defence 0.611 | Genk attack 1.088 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.298. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.611), which is pulling Genk's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 57 games and Genk's last 57.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 23% | Genk 17%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.68 | Draw 4.27 | Genk 5.90. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | Genk 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 23% | Genk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.82 / Genk 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.233 / def 0.611 | Genk attack 1.088 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Genk xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 60% chance of winning, Genk a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 57 games and Genk's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.27
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.69
0.86
Genk xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
36.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.86 for Genk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 67 games, going 40W 20D 7L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.78 PPG from 67 outings (35W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.09 PPG, Genk on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 26W 5D 2L across their last 33 home games, a 2.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.09 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 33 away games (15W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 61%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 20D 7L in their last 67 games (2.09 PPG), while Genk have gone 35W 14D 18L in their last 67 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.52 PPG; Genk away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Genk in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Genk.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
2
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Genk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, Genk 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union St. Gilloise) and 67% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 73% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 67% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 73% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 2-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG and Genk 0.86 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.61 against Genk attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 23% | Genk 17%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 43%, Genk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.09 PPG, Genk 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.