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Poisson rates Charleroi at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Charleroi encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Charleroi travel to Dender Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026, 17:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dender at Dender Football Complex this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Charleroi — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dender, 3 for Charleroi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Charleroi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Dender in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Charleroi in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Charleroi 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.830 / defence 1.330 | Charleroi attack 1.032 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.296. Data: 57 Dender games / 57 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%. Fair-value odds: Dender 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Charleroi 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dender 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.

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