Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Standard Liege travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 5W 2D 3L at Elindus Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Standard Liege have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 1.10 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 2 for Standard Liege and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Standard Liege trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 66% versus Standard Liege 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | Standard Liege 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG and Standard Liege 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.961 / defence 1.213 | Standard Liege attack 0.834 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.301. Data: 27 Zulte Waregem games / 57 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 39%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Standard Liege 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Zulte Waregem 60% | Standard Liege 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.18 / Standard Liege 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.961 / def 1.213 | Standard Liege attack 0.834 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Standard Liege xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 33% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.96) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.59
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Standard Liege xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.31 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 25W 14D 17L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 22L across 56 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 16W 4D 7L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.80 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 16W 18D 22L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Standard Liege away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.93 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 63%, Standard Liege 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Zulte Waregem) and 37% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 33%; Standard Liege in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 30% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 37% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Zulte Waregem 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG and Standard Liege 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Standard Liege attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 39%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Standard Liege 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.