St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St. Truiden (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St. Truiden face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St. Truiden welcome Zulte Waregem to Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St. Truiden have gone 8W 0D 2L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of St. Truiden: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended St. Truiden 2–0 Zulte Waregem — a St. Truiden win.
The head-to-head data gives St. Truiden an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 64% and Zulte Waregem 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 60% | Zulte Waregem 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.59 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.910 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.930 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.292. Zulte Waregem's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 54 games and Zulte Waregem's last 24.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.07 | Draw 3.78 | Zulte Waregem 3.95. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 40% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG St. Truiden 1.59 / Zulte Waregem 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 0.910 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.930 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden 3 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 48% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 54 games and Zulte Waregem's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.78
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.69
1.09
Zulte Waregem xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.09 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 11D 18L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 25W 14D 14L from 53 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.57 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 9D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.68 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.85 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: St. Truiden have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won Zulte Waregem 0-3 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: St. Truiden 4-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, Zulte Waregem 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (St. Truiden) and 58% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of St. Truiden's games and 65% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of St. Truiden's matches and 58% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 73% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.59 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.09 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.57 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.