Charleroi 2-3 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Gent 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 3, Gent 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Gent winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Gent trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Gent 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.55 xG and Gent 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.123 / defence 1.070 | Gent attack 1.097 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.286. Data: 54 Charleroi games / 54 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 24% | Gent 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Gent 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Gent 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 24% | Gent 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.55 / Gent 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.123 / def 1.070 | Gent attack 1.097 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Gent xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 2 - 3 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Gent a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
Record (9 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 2 | Gent 4W.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gent (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.08
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.06
1.51
Gent xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.51 for Gent, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 26W 16D 22L from 64 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 25L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.47 PPG, Gent on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 15W 9D 7L from 31 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 7W 12D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.30 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 26W 16D 22L in their last 64 games (1.47 PPG), while Gent have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Charleroi's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.74 PPG; Gent away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gent in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Gent see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 52%, Gent 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charleroi) and 52% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gent in 32%; Gent in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charleroi's recent matches and 48% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charleroi's recent games and 52% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Gent tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gent in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat Charleroi 2-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.55 xG and Gent 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Gent attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 24% | Gent 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gent win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Gent 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.47 PPG, Gent 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gent (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.