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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gent away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Gent 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 3, Gent 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Gent winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Charleroi trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Gent trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Gent 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.55 xG and Gent 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.123 / defence 1.070 | Gent attack 1.097 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.286. Data: 54 Charleroi games / 54 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 24% | Gent 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Gent 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Gent 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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