RAAL La Louvière 1-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St. Truiden at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees St. Truiden travel to Easi Arena to take on RAAL La Louvière. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RAAL La Louvière stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière at Easi Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Easi Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
St. Truiden — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 1 for St. Truiden and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RAAL La Louvière 56% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 48% | St. Truiden 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 0.77 xG and St. Truiden 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.596 / defence 0.881 | St. Truiden attack 1.123 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.181. RAAL La Louvière's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 RAAL La Louvière games / 51 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 45%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | St. Truiden 2.22. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RAAL La Louvière 20% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG RAAL La Louvière 0.77 / St. Truiden 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.596 / def 0.881 | St. Truiden attack 1.123 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.17
St. Truiden xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden?
RAAL La Louvière 1 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 24% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): RAAL La Louvière 0W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (0.60) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
24%
4.11
31%
3.27
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
1.94
1.17
St. Truiden xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.8 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.17 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 16D 11L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (22W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RAAL La Louvière on 1.70 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 12W 8D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Defensively: RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or St. Truiden away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.83 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.08 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
0
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, St. Truiden have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when RAAL La Louvière 1-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 42%, St. Truiden 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (RAAL La Louvière) and 62% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of RAAL La Louvière's games and 75% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 62% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and St. Truiden tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out RAAL La Louvière 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat RAAL La Louvière 1-2 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.77 xG and St. Truiden 1.17 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.60 / defence 0.88 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 45%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.70 PPG, St. Truiden 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.