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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Charleroi encounter.

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Match Analysis

St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 7W 1D 2L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Daio Wasabi Stayen. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

On current form, St. Truiden have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St. Truiden, 4 for Charleroi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Charleroi in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 67% and Charleroi 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 60% | Charleroi 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / defence 0.849 | Charleroi attack 0.999 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.216. Data: 52 St. Truiden games / 52 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Charleroi lead the H2H ledger, but St. Truiden carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 40% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.

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