St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 7W 1D 2L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Daio Wasabi Stayen. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daio Wasabi Stayen this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, St. Truiden have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St. Truiden, 4 for Charleroi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 67% and Charleroi 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 60% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / defence 0.849 | Charleroi attack 0.999 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.216. Data: 52 St. Truiden games / 52 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Charleroi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Charleroi lead the H2H ledger, but St. Truiden carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 40% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG St. Truiden 1.31 / Charleroi 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / def 0.849 | Charleroi attack 0.999 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
St. Truiden 0 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 42% chance of winning, Charleroi a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 4W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.07x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.41
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
Charleroi xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.03 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 14D 20L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 22W 16D 20L from 58 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.48 PPG, Charleroi on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 16D 20L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.83 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 62%, Charleroi 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (St. Truiden) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of St. Truiden's games and 55% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of St. Truiden's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 42% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 29%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.48 PPG, Charleroi 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.