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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 18:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OH Leuven's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 2, OH Leuven 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with St. Truiden winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 68% versus OH Leuven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 61% | OH Leuven 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.42 xG and OH Leuven 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.075 / defence 0.937 | OH Leuven attack 0.790 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.155. Data: 50 St. Truiden games / 50 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 50% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 23%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | OH Leuven 4.35. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | OH Leuven 40% BTTS from recent games.

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