Genk 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St. Truiden at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genk have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genk at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
St. Truiden away from home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. St. Truiden's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Genk's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Genk's games and 70% of St. Truiden's (from Genk's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Genk, 1 for St. Truiden and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Genk 2–1 St. Truiden — a Genk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 61% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 59% | St. Truiden 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.079 / defence 1.051 | St. Truiden attack 1.312 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.286. St. Truiden have an above-average attack rating of 1.312, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Genk's last 58 games and St. Truiden's last 58.
Result probabilities: Genk 27% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 49%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.68 | Draw 4.23 | St. Truiden 2.03. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 60% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 27% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Genk 1.26 / St. Truiden 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.079 / def 1.051 | St. Truiden attack 1.312 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.77
St. Truiden xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Genk 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 27% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.08) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 58 games and St. Truiden's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
27%
3.68
24%
4.23
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Genk xG
Total xG
3.04
1.77
St. Truiden xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
21.68
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Genk and 1.77 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Genk have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 33W 13D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 28W 14D 22L from 64 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.75 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 32 home games (19W 5D 8L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 11W 6D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 33W 13D 18L in their last 64 games (1.75 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 28W 14D 22L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.94 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Genk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 50%, St. Truiden 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Genk) and 62% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Genk's games and 69% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genk and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Genk's matches and 62% of St. Truiden's.
Do Genk and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Genk's recent matches and 75% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genk defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.31 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 27% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 49%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.75 PPG, St. Truiden 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.