AS Eupen 2-2 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Kortrijk travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 1.00 PPG, Kortrijk 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 67% and Kortrijk 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 67% | Kortrijk 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.22 xG and Kortrijk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.944 / defence 1.164 | Kortrijk attack 0.664 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.477. Data: 15 AS Eupen games / 15 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 38% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Kortrijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: AS Eupen 86% | Kortrijk 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 38% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Eupen 1.22 / Kortrijk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.944 / def 1.164 | Kortrijk attack 0.664 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kortrijk xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
AS Eupen 2 - 2 Kortrijk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk part of?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 38% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Eupen and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.58
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
Kortrijk xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.14 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 6W 3D 6L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 5W 6D 4L from 15 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 1.40 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Kortrijk away?
AS Eupen's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.14 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.86 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Eupen's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
5
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Kortrijk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AS Eupen at 86%, Kortrijk at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AS Eupen) and 29% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of AS Eupen's games and 57% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AS Eupen's recent games and 29% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Kortrijk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Eupen and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 16, as AS Eupen and Kortrijk drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.22 xG and Kortrijk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 38% | Draw 28% | Kortrijk 34%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 67%, Kortrijk 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.40 PPG, Kortrijk 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.