Zulte Waregem 2-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Beerschot VA travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 1W 2D 5L at Elindus Arena — 0.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 0.90 PPG versus Beerschot VA's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 86% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 87% and Beerschot VA 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 80% | Beerschot VA 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.89 xG and Beerschot VA 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.010 / defence 1.776 | Beerschot VA attack 0.801 / defence 1.520. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.522. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.520 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Zulte Waregem games / 15 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 45%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | Beerschot VA 2.22. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 88% | Beerschot VA 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.89 / Beerschot VA 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.010 / def 1.776 | Beerschot VA attack 0.801 / def 1.520 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Beerschot VA xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 35% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.01) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
35%
2.90
20%
4.90
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
4.05
2.17
Beerschot VA xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
11%
8.71
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
4%
25.25
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.17 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 10L across 15 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 0.93 PPG, Beerschot VA on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.00 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 87% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Beerschot VA away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.71 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 86%, Beerschot VA at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zulte Waregem and 71% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Zulte Waregem's games and 86% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 71% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Beerschot VA 2-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.89 xG and Beerschot VA 2.17 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beerschot VA landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.01 / defence 1.78 against Beerschot VA attack 0.80 / defence 1.52, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 45%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 80%, Beerschot VA 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 0.93 PPG, Beerschot VA 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.