Anderlecht 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's home record at Lotto Park: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.40 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 71% and Kortrijk 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 57% | Kortrijk 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.95 xG and Kortrijk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.409 / defence 1.219 | Kortrijk attack 0.681 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.448. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Anderlecht games / 14 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 23%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Kortrijk 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 86% | Kortrijk 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Anderlecht 1.95 / Kortrijk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.409 / def 1.219 | Kortrijk attack 0.681 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Kortrijk xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Anderlecht 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk part of?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 55% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Anderlecht and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Anderlecht's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.68x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.56
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.15
1.20
Kortrijk xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.20 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 6D 3L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.43 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Kortrijk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.71 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Anderlecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Anderlecht
3
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 4, Kortrijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Kortrijk 0-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 86%, Kortrijk 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Anderlecht) and 29% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Anderlecht's games and 43% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Anderlecht's recent games and 29% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 15, as Anderlecht and Kortrijk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.95 xG and Kortrijk 1.20 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.41 / defence 1.22 against Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 55% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 23%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 57%, Kortrijk 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.50 PPG, Kortrijk 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.