Union St. Gilloise 1-3 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 5W 0D 2L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
OH Leuven — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 0W 5D 2L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
OH Leuven trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 53% and OH Leuven 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 73% | OH Leuven 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.21 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.368 / defence 0.944 | OH Leuven attack 0.815 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.470. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Union St. Gilloise's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Union St. Gilloise games / 15 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 20% | OH Leuven 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | OH Leuven 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 43% | OH Leuven 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 20% | OH Leuven 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.21 / OH Leuven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.368 / def 0.944 | OH Leuven attack 0.815 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.13
OH Leuven xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 3 OH Leuven.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.37x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
62%
1.62
20%
5.08
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.35
1.13
OH Leuven xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
2%
49.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.13 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise's recent record stands at 11W 1D 3L from 15 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 4L across 15 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union St. Gilloise have managed 5W 0D 2L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 0W 5D 2L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OH Leuven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.27 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 73%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 11W 1D 3L in their last 15 games (2.27 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 3W 8D 4L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or OH Leuven away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.14 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, OH Leuven have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 43%, OH Leuven 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Union St. Gilloise and 57% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; OH Leuven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 71% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 57% of OH Leuven's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Union St. Gilloise 1-3 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.21 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.2 short of their projected output. OH Leuven outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.37 / defence 0.94 against OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 20% | OH Leuven 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a OH Leuven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 73%, OH Leuven 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with OH Leuven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.