Standard Liege 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Standard Liege and AS Eupen meet at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Standard Liege have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 games at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Eupen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.86 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Standard Liege goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AS Eupen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Standard Liege 64% and AS Eupen 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | AS Eupen 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.27 xG and AS Eupen 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.838 / defence 1.283 | AS Eupen attack 0.969 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.471. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Standard Liege games / 14 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 27% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 50%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | AS Eupen 2.00. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Eupen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 71% | AS Eupen 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 27% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Standard Liege 1.27 / AS Eupen 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.838 / def 1.283 | AS Eupen attack 0.969 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.83
AS Eupen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs AS Eupen kick off?
Standard Liege vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs AS Eupen?
Standard Liege 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Standard Liege vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs AS Eupen part of?
Standard Liege vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 27% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Standard Liege and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and AS Eupen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and AS Eupen in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. AS Eupen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.84x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.97x) against Standard Liege's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
27%
3.77
23%
4.33
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
3.10
1.83
AS Eupen xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
4%
23.45
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.83 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 5L across 14 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Standard Liege against 1.50 for AS Eupen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liege are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liege have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; AS Eupen in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or AS Eupen away?
AS Eupen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 0.86 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Standard Liege have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Standard Liege won 4-0 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Standard Liege
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 5, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Standard Liege 4-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and AS Eupen?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 71%, AS Eupen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Standard Liege and 86% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Standard Liege's games and 57% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Standard Liege's matches and 86% of AS Eupen's.
Do Standard Liege and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.27 xG and AS Eupen 1.83 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against AS Eupen attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 27% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 50%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 50%, AS Eupen 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.21 PPG, AS Eupen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.