Kortrijk 1-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Kortrijk welcome Beerschot VA to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporenstadion: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldensporenstadion. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 0W 2D 4L from 6 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 46% versus Beerschot VA 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 38% | Beerschot VA 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.82 xG and Beerschot VA 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.925 / defence 0.949 | Beerschot VA attack 0.872 / defence 1.584. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.498. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.584 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Kortrijk games / 13 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 23% | Beerschot VA 26%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Beerschot VA 3.85. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Beerschot VA 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 23% | Beerschot VA 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Kortrijk 1.82 / Beerschot VA 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.925 / def 0.949 | Beerschot VA attack 0.872 / def 1.584 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Beerschot VA xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk 1 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA part of?
Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 51% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kortrijk and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.93x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.36
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.06
1.24
Beerschot VA xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.24 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 4D 4L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.38 PPG from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kortrijk's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.92 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Defensively: Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 1W 2D 10L in their last 13 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Beerschot VA away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.83 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kortrijk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kortrijk
2
Draws
2
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kortrijk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Beerschot VA?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kortrijk at 50%, Beerschot VA at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kortrijk and 83% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 83% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kortrijk's matches and 83% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Kortrijk and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and Beerschot VA share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 14, as Kortrijk and Beerschot VA drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.82 xG and Beerschot VA 1.24 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Beerschot VA attack 0.87 / defence 1.58, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 23% | Beerschot VA 26%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 38%, Beerschot VA 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.