Oostende 1-7 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Oostende welcome Union St. Gilloise to Diaz Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oostende at Diaz Arena this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Oostende are significantly better at Diaz Arena than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 1D 1L from 7 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Oostende's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Oostende trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 50% versus Union St. Gilloise 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 57% | Union St. Gilloise 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.19 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.999 / defence 1.369 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.156 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.436. Data: 14 Oostende games / 14 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 19% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 62%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Union St. Gilloise 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 57% | Union St. Gilloise 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 19% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Oostende 1.19 / Union St. Gilloise 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.999 / def 1.369 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.156 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Union St. Gilloise xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Oostende 1 - 7 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 19% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Oostende and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise in?
Oostende (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oostende's attack at 1.00x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
19%
5.29
19%
5.16
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.46
2.27
Union St. Gilloise xG
5.29
19%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
10%
9.71
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
51.31
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Oostende and 2.27 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oostende come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 2D 7L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.21 PPG from 14 outings (10W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oostende's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.29 points per game from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oostende are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.36 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 10W 1D 3L in their last 14 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.43 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Oostende or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oostende have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oostende's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Oostende
1
Draws
3
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2022, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 57%, Union St. Gilloise 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Oostende and 71% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 43%; Oostende have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Oostende's games and 57% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oostende vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Oostende's matches and 71% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Oostende and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Oostende.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Oostende 1-7 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.19 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.27 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 2.27 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 19% | Draw 19% | Union St. Gilloise 62%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 57%, Union St. Gilloise 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Oostende (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.