Patro Eisden 3-1 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Patro Eisden face Standard Liège II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Patro Eisden welcome Standard Liège II to Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Patro Eisden's home record over their last 8 home games: 4W 1D 3L (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liège II have recorded 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liège II's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Patro Eisden at 1.40 PPG versus Standard Liège II's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for Standard Liège II and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Patro Eisden 1–0 Standard Liège II — a Patro Eisden win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Standard Liège II in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 47% versus Standard Liège II 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 53% | Standard Liège II 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.62 xG and Standard Liège II 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.028 / defence 1.044 | Standard Liège II attack 0.863 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.512. Standard Liège II's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Patro Eisden's projected output up. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 17 games and Standard Liège II's last 39.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 44% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 32%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.30 | Draw 4.13 | Standard Liège II 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 8 home games and Standard Liège II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 50% (last 8 home games) | Standard Liège II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 44% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.62 / Standard Liège II 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.028 / def 1.044 | Standard Liège II attack 0.863 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Standard Liège II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 Standard Liège II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II part of?
Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 44% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Patro Eisden's attack rating (1.03) and Standard Liège II's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liège II's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 17 games and Standard Liège II's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.13
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.98
1.36
Standard Liège II xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.36 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Patro Eisden come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 4D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Standard Liège II sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (5W 0D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Patro Eisden's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Standard Liège II have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 0D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Standard Liège II's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
Patro Eisden (Home) vs Standard Liège II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 5W 0D 12L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Standard Liège II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.62 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
0
Draws
0
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 2, Standard Liège II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 January 2024: Patro Eisden 3-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 50%, Standard Liège II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Patro Eisden and 75% for Standard Liège II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 38% of games; Standard Liège II in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs Standard Liège II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 50% of Standard Liège II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Patro Eisden's matches and 75% of Standard Liège II's.
Do Patro Eisden and Standard Liège II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 100% of Standard Liège II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Standard Liège II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Standard Liège II 3-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.62 xG and Standard Liège II 1.36 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Standard Liège II attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 44% | Draw 24% | Standard Liège II 32%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 53%, Standard Liège II 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.