Standard Liège II 0-4 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Standard Liège II and Lommel United meet at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liège II at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lommel United (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lommel United in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Standard Liège II 2W, Lommel United 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lommel United half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 57% versus Lommel United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 61% | Lommel United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.25 xG and Lommel United 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.982 / defence 1.209 | Lommel United attack 0.968 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.518. Data: 40 Standard Liège II games / 39 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 27% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 50%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Lommel United 2.00. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 60% | Lommel United 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 27% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Standard Liège II 1.25 / Lommel United 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.982 / def 1.209 | Lommel United attack 0.968 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Lommel United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Lommel United kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Standard Liège II 0 - 4 Lommel United.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United part of?
Standard Liège II vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 27% chance of winning, Lommel United a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Standard Liège II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
Record (5 meetings): Standard Liège II 2W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Lommel United in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Lommel United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.98) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (0.97x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
27%
3.70
23%
4.29
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
3.03
1.78
Lommel United xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
5%
21.87
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.78 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liège II come into this having played 49 games, going 10W 11D 28L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lommel United sit at 1.61 PPG from 49 outings (24W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Standard Liège II's home form reads 6W 8D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Lommel United have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.57 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 10W 11D 28L in their last 49 games (0.84 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 24W 7D 18L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.04 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Standard Liège II or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liège II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Lommel United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lommel United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 6-1 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 2, Lommel United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Standard Liège II 0-4 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 68%, Lommel United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Standard Liège II and 68% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Standard Liège II's games and 60% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Standard Liège II's matches and 68% of Lommel United's.
Do Standard Liège II and Lommel United tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Standard Liège II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Standard Liège II 0-4 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.25 xG and Lommel United 1.78 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liège II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Lommel United attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 27% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 50%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 61%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lommel United's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.