Lommel United 3-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to Soeverein Stadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Soeverein Stadion, Lommel United have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Soeverein Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lommel United are significantly better at Soeverein Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Beerschot VA have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 0.80 PPG clear of Lommel United in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lommel United, 2 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | Beerschot VA 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.10 xG and Beerschot VA 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.098 / defence 0.823 | Beerschot VA attack 1.251 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.470. Beerschot VA have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Lommel United games / 41 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 28% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 47%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Beerschot VA 2.13. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 40% | Beerschot VA 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 28% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Lommel United 1.10 / Beerschot VA 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.098 / def 0.823 | Beerschot VA attack 1.251 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Lommel United vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Lommel United 3 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA part of?
Lommel United vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 28% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lommel United and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 2W.
What form are Lommel United and Beerschot VA in?
Lommel United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.10x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (1.25x) against Lommel United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
28%
3.62
26%
3.90
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.51 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 8D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.73 PPG from 51 outings (27W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Lommel United against 1.73 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 13W 3D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 1.96 points per game from 25 outings (16W 1D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 25W 8D 18L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 27W 7D 17L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.68 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lommel United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 7 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lommel United
0
Draws
4
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, Beerschot VA have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-3 Lommel United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 48%, Beerschot VA 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lommel United) and 68% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lommel United's recent matches and 60% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lommel United's matches and 68% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Lommel United and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Beerschot VA 3-0 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.10 xG and Beerschot VA 1.51 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Beerschot VA attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 28% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 47%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, Beerschot VA 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.63 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.