Zulte Waregem 1-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 54%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Zulte Waregem welcome KRC Genk II to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 0 for KRC Genk II and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 67% and KRC Genk II 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 65% | KRC Genk II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG and KRC Genk II 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.910 / defence 1.216 | KRC Genk II attack 1.075 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.526. Data: 17 Zulte Waregem games / 39 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 1.85. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.28 / KRC Genk II 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.910 / def 1.216 | KRC Genk II attack 1.075 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.00
KRC Genk II xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II part of?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 24% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.91x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
24%
4.11
22%
4.62
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.28
2.00
KRC Genk II xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
30.29
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.00 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 15W 11D 23L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 27L across 49 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 1.14 PPG, KRC Genk II on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 5W 5D 14L from 24 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 11W 11D 27L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.83 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 71%, KRC Genk II at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zulte Waregem and 62% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 62% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.28 xG and KRC Genk II 2.00 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against KRC Genk II attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 17/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 24% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 54%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 65%, KRC Genk II 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.14 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.