SK Beveren 0-2 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face Club Brugge II.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Club Brugge II meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethielstadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Club Brugge II have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Club Brugge II have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in SK Beveren's favour (2.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Club Brugge II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Club Brugge II — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 55% versus Club Brugge II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 67% | Club Brugge II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Club Brugge II 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.228 / defence 0.974 | Club Brugge II attack 0.847 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.506. Club Brugge II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 SK Beveren games / 39 Club Brugge II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Club Brugge II 3.85. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 60% | Club Brugge II 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG SK Beveren 1.82 / Club Brugge II 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.228 / def 0.974 | Club Brugge II attack 0.847 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Club Brugge II xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kick off?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren 0 - 2 Club Brugge II.
Where is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II part of?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SK Beveren and Club Brugge II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
Record (5 meetings): SK Beveren 3W | Draws 1 | Club Brugge II 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Club Brugge II (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.23x the league average against Club Brugge II's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge II's attack (0.85x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.36
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.07
1.24
Club Brugge II xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
23.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.24 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 13D 8L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge II sit at 1.41 PPG from 49 outings (20W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 17W 4D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge II have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (8W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.49 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 28W 13D 8L in their last 49 games (1.98 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Club Brugge II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.29 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.12 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Club Brugge II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Club Brugge II in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge II won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Club Brugge II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Club Brugge II last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Club Brugge II 2-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 62%, Club Brugge II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SK Beveren and 67% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Club Brugge II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Club Brugge II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SK Beveren's games and 58% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of Club Brugge II's.
Do SK Beveren and Club Brugge II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Club Brugge II in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge II beat SK Beveren 0-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Club Brugge II 1.24 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Club Brugge II attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Club Brugge II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, Club Brugge II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Club Brugge II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.