Liège 2-1 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liège at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liège vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympic Charleroi travel to Stade de Rocourt to take on Liège in Challenger Pro League (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Liège stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Liège have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Liège are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Olympic Charleroi — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Olympic Charleroi's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Liège are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Liège, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Liège 1–1 Olympic Charleroi — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Liège in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympic Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 38% versus Olympic Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 41% | Olympic Charleroi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.75 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 1.074 / defence 0.885 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.911 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.411. Data: built from Liège's last 58 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 29.
Result probabilities: Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 25%. Fair-value odds: Liège 1.93 | Draw 4.25 | Olympic Charleroi 4.06. Liège hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liège as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liège's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liège 40% (last 10 home games) | Olympic Charleroi 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Liège 1.75 / Olympic Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 1.074 / def 0.885 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.911 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Liège (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Olympic Charleroi xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liège vs Olympic Charleroi FAQs
What time does Liège vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Liège vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Olympic Charleroi?
Liège 2 - 1 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Liège vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Liège vs Olympic Charleroi is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 52% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Liège and Olympic Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liège vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Liège's attack rating (1.07) and Olympic Charleroi's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus Liège's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Liège's last 58 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.25
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Liège xG
Total xG
2.89
1.14
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liège vs Olympic Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Liège and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Liège and 1.14 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Liège come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 5D 11L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Olympic Charleroi sit at 0.55 PPG from 29 outings (3W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Liège carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Olympic Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Liège's home form reads 8W 1D 5L across their last 14 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympic Charleroi have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 14 away games (3W 5D 6L). That's actually stronger than their 0.55 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Liège are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.86 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Current Season
Olympic Charleroi
Current Season
Liège (Home) vs Olympic Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liège
Current Season
Olympic Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Liège vs Olympic Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Liège and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 13W 5D 11L in their last 29 games (1.52 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 19L in their last 29 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Liège's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.79 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Liège or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liège have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Liège
1
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Liège vs Olympic Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Olympic Charleroi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Liège have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Liège and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Liège 2-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Liège and Olympic Charleroi?
Liège have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 43%, Olympic Charleroi 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Liège) and 57% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Liège have failed to score in 29% of games; Olympic Charleroi in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liège vs Olympic Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liège and Olympic Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Liège's recent matches and 64% of Olympic Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Liège and Olympic Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Liège's recent games and 57% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and Olympic Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Liège's recent matches and 79% of Olympic Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Liège edge out Olympic Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liège beat Olympic Charleroi 2-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 32, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.75 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 52% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 25%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 41%, Olympic Charleroi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.