KRC Genk II 2-2 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host Lokeren-Temse at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Lokeren-Temse have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (KRC Genk II) versus 1.20 (Lokeren-Temse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for KRC Genk II, 2 for Lokeren-Temse and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 60% versus Lokeren-Temse 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 67% | Lokeren-Temse 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.17 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.909 / defence 1.081 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.964 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.381. Data: 58 KRC Genk II games / 58 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 43%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Lokeren-Temse 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 50% | Lokeren-Temse 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG KRC Genk II 1.17 / Lokeren-Temse 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.909 / def 1.081 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.964 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Lokeren-Temse xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse?
KRC Genk II 2 - 2 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 31% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (3 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 1 | Lokeren-Temse 2W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.91) and Lokeren-Temse's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
31%
3.26
26%
3.84
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.61
1.44
Lokeren-Temse xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.44 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KRC Genk II come into this having played 58 games, going 10W 12D 36L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Lokeren-Temse sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (23W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Lokeren-Temse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
KRC Genk II's home form reads 6W 5D 17L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokeren-Temse have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.38 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Current Season
Lokeren-Temse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 10W 12D 36L in their last 58 games (0.72 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.82 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Lokeren-Temse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Lokeren-Temse specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
2
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse?
From 5 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 2-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 57%, Lokeren-Temse 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (KRC Genk II) and 46% (Lokeren-Temse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Lokeren-Temse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of KRC Genk II's games and 57% of Lokeren-Temse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of KRC Genk II's matches and 46% of Lokeren-Temse's.
Do KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and Lokeren-Temse finished level at 2-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.17 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 31% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 43%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 67%, Lokeren-Temse 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.