K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.10 for Francs Borains. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 52% versus Francs Borains 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Francs Borains 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.57 xG and Francs Borains 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.870 / defence 1.095 | Francs Borains attack 0.795 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.402. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 K. Lierse S.K. games / 58 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 45% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 30%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 3.33. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Francs Borains 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 45% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.57 / Francs Borains 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.870 / def 1.095 | Francs Borains attack 0.795 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Francs Borains xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 45% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
Record (5 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 3W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 2W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.87x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.80x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
45%
2.20
25%
4.02
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.79
1.22
Francs Borains xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.22 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 14D 24L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (17W 11D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.07 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 12W 7D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.00 points per game from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Current Season
Francs Borains
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 17W 11D 30L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Francs Borains away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.48 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
3
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Francs Borains have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 52%, Francs Borains 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 59% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 28% of games; Francs Borains in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 52% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 59% of Francs Borains's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.57 xG and Francs Borains 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Francs Borains attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 45% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 30%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Francs Borains's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.28 PPG, Francs Borains 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.