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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade de la Neuville plays host to Olympic Charleroi versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Olympic Charleroi's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Stade de la Neuville this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

K. Lierse S.K. away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On a straight form reading, K. Lierse S.K. are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Olympic Charleroi 0W, K. Lierse S.K. 0W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 53% versus K. Lierse S.K. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.78 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.588 / defence 1.524 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.954 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.402. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Olympic Charleroi games / 59 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 13% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 67%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 1.49. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympic Charleroi 50% | K. Lierse S.K. 60%.

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