Francs Borains 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Francs Borains, 1.60 for K. Lierse S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Francs Borains 2W, K. Lierse S.K. 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Francs Borains winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 52% versus K. Lierse S.K. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 57% | K. Lierse S.K. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.09 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.921 / defence 0.862 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.733 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.316. Data: 44 Francs Borains games / 44 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 41% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 41% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Francs Borains 1.09 / K. Lierse S.K. 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.921 / def 0.862 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.733 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Francs Borains 0 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 41% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (4 meetings): Francs Borains 2W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.73x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.16
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
1.92
0.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.83 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 9D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.34 PPG from 44 outings (16W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.34 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Francs Borains's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.10 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Francs Borains
0
Draws
3
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 3, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 52%, K. Lierse S.K. 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Francs Borains) and 38% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 29% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play K. Lierse S.K.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 48% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Francs Borains's recent games and 38% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat Francs Borains 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.09 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.83 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.73 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 41% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 57%, K. Lierse S.K. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.09 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.