Lokeren-Temse 2-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse host KRC Genk II at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lokeren-Temse stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lokeren-Temse are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lokeren-Temse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lokeren-Temse, 0 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Lokeren-Temse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 50% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 46% | KRC Genk II 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.72 xG and KRC Genk II 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.155 / defence 1.149 | KRC Genk II attack 0.761 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.349. Data: 44 Lokeren-Temse games / 44 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 50% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 26%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | KRC Genk II 3.85. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokeren-Temse are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 60% | KRC Genk II 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 50% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.72 / KRC Genk II 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.155 / def 1.149 | KRC Genk II attack 0.761 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse 2 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 50% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
Record (2 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 2W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 1.16x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.21
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.90
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.18 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 18W 10D 16L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 29L across 44 games — 0.66 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokeren-Temse by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 2W 4D 16L across 22 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.09 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 7W 8D 29L in their last 44 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or KRC Genk II away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.36 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Lokeren-Temse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lokeren-Temse's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Lokeren-Temse
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
From 5 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 2-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 46%, KRC Genk II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lokeren-Temse) and 68% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 32% of games; KRC Genk II in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 59% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Lokeren-Temse's matches and 68% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 17, as Lokeren-Temse and KRC Genk II drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.72 xG and KRC Genk II 1.18 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against KRC Genk II attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 50% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 26%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 46%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.