🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Francs Borains (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RSC Anderlecht II face Francs Borains.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as RSC Anderlecht II welcome Francs Borains to Lotto Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

RSC Anderlecht II — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RSC Anderlecht II's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Francs Borains — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Francs Borains have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for RSC Anderlecht II.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Francs Borains have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

RSC Anderlecht II in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RSC Anderlecht II 67% versus Francs Borains 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 64% | Francs Borains 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.57 xG and Francs Borains 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.050 / defence 1.289 | Francs Borains attack 0.919 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.348. Data: 45 RSC Anderlecht II games / 45 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 38% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 38%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 70% | Francs Borains 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights