Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wolfsberger AC face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Wattens at Lavanttal-Arena in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 32). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Wolfsberger AC have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Wolfsberger AC) versus 1.20 (WSG Wattens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 2 for WSG Wattens and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Wolfsberger AC 1–3 WSG Wattens — a WSG Wattens win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 60% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 59% | WSG Wattens 52%). Note also that WSG Wattens surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.46 xG and WSG Wattens 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.071 / defence 1.091 | WSG Wattens attack 1.056 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and WSG Wattens's last 44.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.50 | Draw 3.76 | WSG Wattens 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 32 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.46 / WSG Wattens 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.071 / def 1.091 | WSG Wattens attack 1.056 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 32) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 40% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.07x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and WSG Wattens's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.76
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
WSG Wattens xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.32 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 26W 15D 22L from 63 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 27L across 63 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.48 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 13W 9D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 7W 7D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.19 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 26W 15D 22L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 17W 19D 27L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or WSG Wattens away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.55 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 4-1 WSG Wattens.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Wolfsberger AC 0-2 WSG Wattens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 61%, WSG Wattens 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Wolfsberger AC) and 61% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 55% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 61% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat WSG Wattens 2-0 at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.46 xG and WSG Wattens 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 59%, WSG Wattens 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.48 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.