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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Grazer AK make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

FC BW Linz (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Grazer AK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Grazer AK's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC BW Linz, 3 for Grazer AK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Grazer AK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Grazer AK 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.033 / defence 1.188 | Grazer AK attack 0.861 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 45% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 28%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.57. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 50% | Grazer AK 60% BTTS from recent games.

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