WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 45%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. WSG Wattens haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against WSG Wattens's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with WSG Wattens winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 59% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 50% | Sturm Graz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.47 xG and Sturm Graz 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.983 / defence 0.990 | Sturm Graz attack 1.043 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.030. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 3.85. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.47 / Sturm Graz 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.983 / def 0.990 | Sturm Graz attack 1.043 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 45% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Record (9 meetings): WSG Wattens 2W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 6W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.54
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.06 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 10D 12L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. WSG Wattens haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sturm Graz's form line: 16W 8D 8L from 32 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. Sturm Graz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 10W 3D 3L from 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.59 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Pre-Season
Sturm Graz
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.62 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.06 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 69%, Sturm Graz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of WSG Wattens's games and 56% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 50% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 1, as WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.47 xG and Sturm Graz 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Sturm Graz attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 45% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 26%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 50%, Sturm Graz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.