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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Ried make the trip to Cashpoint-Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SCR Altach's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Cashpoint-Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.

Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Ried away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for SCR Altach, 1.40 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Ried winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Ried 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | Ried 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.55 xG and Ried 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.009 / defence 0.918 | Ried attack 0.866 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 22 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 27% | Ried 21%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Ried 4.76. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 70% | Ried 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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