Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 61% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 59% | TSV Hartberg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.925 / defence 0.873 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.051 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.354. Data: 34 Wolfsberger AC games / 34 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 50% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.29 / TSV Hartberg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.925 / def 0.873 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.051 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 38% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.73
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.24 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 22W 10D 12L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 14L across 44 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.73 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 11W 4D 8L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.61 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 61%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Wolfsberger AC) and 48% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 39%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 59%, TSV Hartberg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.73 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.