🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 61% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 59% | TSV Hartberg 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.925 / defence 0.873 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.051 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.354. Data: 34 Wolfsberger AC games / 34 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 50% | TSV Hartberg 40%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights