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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Ried encounter.

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Analysis

Ried make the trip to Stadion Hartberg to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ried (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ried's away record: 3W 0D 3L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for TSV Hartberg, 1.60 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ried in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across 9 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Ried half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 62% versus Ried 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | Ried 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.76 xG and Ried 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.041 / defence 0.964 | Ried attack 1.035 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.324. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 TSV Hartberg games / 13 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 23% | Ried 29%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Ried 3.45. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Ried 67% BTTS from recent games.

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