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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Cashpoint-Arena, SCR Altach have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.

Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SCR Altach, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with SCR Altach winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Wolfsberger AC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 38% | Wolfsberger AC 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.08 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.879 / defence 0.948 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.327 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.324. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 SCR Altach games / 35 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 25% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 51%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Wolfsberger AC 1.96. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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