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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna encounter.

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Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg at Stadion Hartberg this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.50 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Austria Vienna 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / defence 0.997 | Austria Vienna attack 1.232 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.427. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 TSV Hartberg games / 33 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 49%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 2.04. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.

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