WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rapid Vienna (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Rapid Vienna winning.
It is worth noting that Rapid Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Rapid Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | Rapid Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.216 / defence 1.027 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.035 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.364. Data: 33 WSG Wattens games / 34 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Rapid Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG WSG Wattens 1.34 / Rapid Vienna 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.216 / def 1.027 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.035 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Rapid Vienna xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 7W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (1.22) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
35%
2.87
25%
3.96
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.79
1.45
Rapid Vienna xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.45 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 13D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 18W 9D 16L from 43 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 9D 16L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Rapid Vienna away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.18 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 54%, Rapid Vienna 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (WSG Wattens) and 59% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of WSG Wattens's games and 73% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 59% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 13, as WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.22 / defence 1.03 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, Rapid Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.