Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 37%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wolfsberger AC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Wolfsberger AC 3–1 Sturm Graz — a Wolfsberger AC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 64% and Sturm Graz 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 62% | Sturm Graz 60%). Note also that Sturm Graz surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.052 / defence 1.064 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 42 games and Sturm Graz's last 42.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.69 | Draw 3.86 | Sturm Graz 2.71. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Wolfsberger AC 37% and Sturm Graz 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.34 / Sturm Graz 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.052 / def 1.064 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 37% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.07x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 42 games and Sturm Graz's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.86
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.34 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 23W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 30W 7D 15L from 52 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.87 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 15W 3D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.83 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 11D 18L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 30W 7D 15L in their last 52 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.58 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 65%, Sturm Graz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Wolfsberger AC and 62% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 77% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz finished level at 2-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 62%, Sturm Graz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.54 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.