Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.40 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SCR Altach trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 60% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.888 / defence 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.837 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: 43 Sturm Graz games / 43 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sturm Graz 1.10 / SCR Altach 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.888 / def 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.837 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Record (8 meetings): Sturm Graz 6W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.89) and SCR Altach's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.17
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.09
0.99
SCR Altach xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.99 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 8D 15L from 53 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 22L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 15W 4D 7L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.96 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 8D 15L in their last 53 games (1.85 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 19D 22L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.88 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 58%, SCR Altach 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sturm Graz) and 46% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SCR Altach in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 35% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 46% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 60%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.