🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sturm Graz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.40 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.

The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sturm Graz trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

SCR Altach trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 60% | SCR Altach 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.888 / defence 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.837 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: 43 Sturm Graz games / 43 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights