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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Rapid Vienna welcome Grazer AK to Allianz Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Grazer AK — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Grazer AK have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rapid Vienna, 0 for Grazer AK and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Grazer AK in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus Grazer AK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 53% | Grazer AK 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Grazer AK 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.031 / defence 0.958 | Grazer AK attack 0.631 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.382. Data: 35 Rapid Vienna games / 35 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 57% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 19%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Grazer AK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 40% | Grazer AK 50% BTTS from recent games.

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