TSV Hartberg 0-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Sturm Graz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 49% | Sturm Graz 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.033 / defence 0.854 | Sturm Graz attack 1.340 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.344. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 TSV Hartberg games / 35 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 44%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.25 / Sturm Graz 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.033 / def 0.854 | Sturm Graz attack 1.340 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Record (6 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 2 | Sturm Graz 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
31%
3.22
25%
4.00
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.54 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 17W 15D 13L from 45 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 26W 7D 12L across 45 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 13W 2D 5L across 20 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.96 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 15D 13L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 26W 7D 12L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.50 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 65%, Sturm Graz at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (TSV Hartberg) and 70% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of TSV Hartberg's games and 65% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 70% of Sturm Graz's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.54 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Sturm Graz attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 44%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 49%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.