🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sturm Graz's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.60 (Sturm Graz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 0 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.

It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 49% | Sturm Graz 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.033 / defence 0.854 | Sturm Graz attack 1.340 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.344. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 TSV Hartberg games / 35 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 44%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights