Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SCR Altach travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SCR Altach away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.40 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sturm Graz: 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for SCR Altach, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Sturm Graz 2–0 SCR Altach — a Sturm Graz win.
The head-to-head data gives Sturm Graz an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SCR Altach trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 60% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.888 / defence 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.837 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 43 games and SCR Altach's last 43.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.70 | Draw 3.17 | SCR Altach 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sturm Graz 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.10 / SCR Altach 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.888 / def 0.986 | SCR Altach attack 0.837 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.89) and SCR Altach's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 43 games and SCR Altach's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.17
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.09
0.99
SCR Altach xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.99 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 8D 15L from 53 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 22L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 15W 4D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.96 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 8D 15L in their last 53 games (1.85 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 19D 22L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.88 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-0 SCR Altach.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 58%, SCR Altach 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sturm Graz) and 46% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SCR Altach in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 35% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 46% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 58% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 60%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.