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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz encounter.

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Analysis

FC BW Linz make the trip to Cashpoint-Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

SCR Altach (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach's home record at Cashpoint-Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC BW Linz's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward SCR Altach. A 1.00 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: SCR Altach 2W, FC BW Linz 3W, 3D.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with SCR Altach winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SCR Altach — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | FC BW Linz 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.41 xG and FC BW Linz 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.010 / defence 0.881 | FC BW Linz attack 0.749 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | FC BW Linz 5.26. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 70% | FC BW Linz 40%.

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