🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Across 8 previous meetings, Austria Vienna are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Austria Vienna winning.

The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | Sturm Graz 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.086 / defence 1.009 | Sturm Graz attack 1.136 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | Sturm Graz 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights