TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Stadion Hartberg to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC BW Linz (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 1.50 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 45% | FC BW Linz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.890 / defence 0.799 | FC BW Linz attack 0.692 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. TSV Hartberg's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 TSV Hartberg games / 43 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | FC BW Linz 5.26. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | FC BW Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.27 / FC BW Linz 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.890 / def 0.799 | FC BW Linz attack 0.692 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.67
FC BW Linz xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
Record (5 meetings): TSV Hartberg 3W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.69x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.23
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
1.93
0.67
FC BW Linz xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.67 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 19D 15L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 31L across 53 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours TSV Hartberg by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC BW Linz's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.06 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 19D 15L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 15W 7D 31L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or FC BW Linz away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.52 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.72 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 4-1 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, FC BW Linz 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 22, as TSV Hartberg and FC BW Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against FC BW Linz attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 45%, FC BW Linz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.