🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face FC BW Linz.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

FC BW Linz make the trip to Stadion Hartberg to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

FC BW Linz (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 1.50 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 45% | FC BW Linz 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and FC BW Linz 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.890 / defence 0.799 | FC BW Linz attack 0.692 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. TSV Hartberg's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 TSV Hartberg games / 43 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 31% | FC BW Linz 19%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | FC BW Linz 5.26. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | FC BW Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights