Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Ried at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sturm Graz's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ried stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ried have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ried — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Sturm Graz's games and 62% of Ried's (from Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Ried's last 8 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Ried and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Sturm Graz 3–1 Ried — a Sturm Graz win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sturm Graz and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ried in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 59% versus Ried 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 59% | Ried 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.54 xG and Ried 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.942 / defence 1.183 | Ried attack 0.948 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.311. Ried's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sturm Graz's projected output up. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 39 games and Ried's last 17.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 24% | Ried 36%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.54 | Draw 4.12 | Ried 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Ried are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sturm Graz 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Ried's last 8 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 80% (last 10 home games) | Ried 62% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 24% | Ried 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.54 / Ried 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.942 / def 1.183 | Ried attack 0.948 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Ried xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Ried FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Ried kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 Ried.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Ried part of?
Sturm Graz vs Ried is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 39% chance of winning, Ried a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sturm Graz and Ried will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sturm Graz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 39 games and Ried's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.12
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.01
1.47
Ried xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.47 for Ried, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 9W 1D 7L from 17 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 7L across 17 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.65 PPG, Ried on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 2W 1D 5L from their last 8 home games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 0D 4L across their last 8 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Ried
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Ried (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Ried Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 9W 1D 7L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Ried have gone 8W 2D 7L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Ried away?
Ried's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 0.88 PPG; Ried away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Ried been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ried in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Ried specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Ried H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 4, Ried have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Ried last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Sturm Graz 2-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sturm Graz at 75%, Ried at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sturm Graz and 62% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Ried Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Ried matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sturm Graz's games and 62% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sturm Graz and Ried matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sturm Graz's matches and 62% of Ried's.
Do Sturm Graz and Ried matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 75% of Ried's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Ried 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Ried 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.54 xG and Ried 1.47 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Ried attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 24% | Ried 36%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 59%, Ried 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ried's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.65 PPG, Ried 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.