Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 42%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 24). Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sturm Graz's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sturm Graz have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Red Bull Salzburg managing 1 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sturm Graz and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Red Bull Salzburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.956 / defence 0.919 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.275 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.275, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.45 | Draw 3.47 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 24 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.07 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.956 / def 0.919 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.275 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Red Bull Salzburg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 24) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 29% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.27x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
29%
3.45
29%
3.47
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.42
1.34
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.34 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 32W 8D 15L from 55 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 13L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.71 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 4D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 11W 9D 7L across their last 27 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.73 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 32W 8D 15L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.93 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 5-0 Red Bull Salzburg on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
3
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Sturm Graz 3-4 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sturm Graz) and 48% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sturm Graz's games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 78% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.89 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.