🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Group - 25 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

TSV Hartberg trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Red Bull Salzburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 43% | Red Bull Salzburg 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / defence 0.869 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.254 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights