TSV Hartberg 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Group - 25 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Red Bull Salzburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 43% | Red Bull Salzburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / defence 0.869 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.254 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 25 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.00 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / def 0.869 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.254 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Group - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 29% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 5W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.88x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.33
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.25
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.25 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 21D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.70 PPG from 56 outings (26W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.39 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.48 points per game from 27 outings (10W 10D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 21D 16L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.44 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.48 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Red Bull Salzburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (TSV Hartberg) and 44% (Red Bull Salzburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of TSV Hartberg's games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 43%, Red Bull Salzburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.39 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.