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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg at Stadion Hartberg this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.70 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Austria Vienna 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Austria Vienna 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / defence 0.862 | Austria Vienna attack 1.251 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Austria Vienna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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