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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

WSG Wattens have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SCR Altach (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with SCR Altach winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | SCR Altach 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.988 / defence 0.936 | SCR Altach attack 0.804 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 4.35. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 60% | SCR Altach 40%.

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